I just read yet another article about how the whole business model of recording and selling CDs is dead. This particular article called it “futile” to attempt to sell CDs.

I’ve read dozens of these articles. A new one comes out just about every week, and each time I read one — and I subscribe to a lot of music business blogs — I grow more and more confused and irritated.

I recognize the fact that music piracy has certainly bit into CD sales. And iTunes and the Amazon.com mp3 Store and the internet in general have certainly modified the business model.  The new business model is less forgiving of an 18-dollar CD, but conversely provides you will an effective COGS (cost of goods sold) of zero for online sales (not counting recording and production).

Even with the ubiquity of legal and illegal online music distribution, the majority of music sales for independent artists happen at live music events — at least in my experience. This follows with a simple theory of music sales mentioned in Andrew Dubber’s excellent ebook, “20 Things You Must Know About Music Online” (available at his blog, newmusicstrategies.com). Hear, like, buy.

Put simply, for someone to purchase your music, they must first hear it. Then, if they like it, they’ll buy it. This fundamental truth of music sales hasn’t changed, and I don’t think it ever will.

When my bands perform live shows, a percentage of the people will like what they hear and buy a CD, maybe more. If the sales don’t come, the LAST thing I’d blame is the interne

I see three possible reasons the music not selling:

1. Not a large enough crowd. If you typically sell to 5% of your crowd, playing to a crowd of 20 will yield you fewer sales than playing to a crowd of 200. If they’re not there to hear it, they ain’t gonna buy it.
2. Not enough new ears in the crowd. If you constantly play solely to your core fan base, you will eventually reach a saturation point, where the fans that would buy your discs already own it. Try playing on a bill with other acts: new ears = potential sales.
3. They’re hearing, but not liking. This is a bitter pill to swallow. Maybe the band didn’t put on a good show. Maybe it’s the wrong crowd for your music. Maybe the crowd doesn’t like the music. Maybe they like it, but not enough to buy it, so maybe they WILL pirate it. But if the crowd likes your music, and you’ve given them a good show and left them wanting more, you’re going to sell records. Period.

When sales for my bands wane, I look at these three things before I even consider blaming piracy or the internet. I’m going through this process with one of my bands right now. Our sales during the Faire season were okay. The cost of the run of 1000 CDs is paid-for and then some. Not bad for a niche band that’s only 18 months old.

But as we approach writing songs for our second disc, I’m starting to think about the people who come to our shows. What kind of music would they want to hear? What kind of songs would they want to own? What sorts of songs will not only grab their attention, but grab the attention of passersby?

Our first disc was mostly made up of music we wanted to perform and record. Our second disc will integrate the wants of the band with what we believe are the wants of our audience. Hopefully we’ll read the audience correctly. If so, we’ll see a bump in sales.

My point in all of this? Trying to sell your music is certainly not futile. Try to sell people music they haven’t heard or don’t like is absolutely futile. If your goal is to sell records you have to give people what they want, or at the very least find enough people who like what you’re offering.

The internet is the greatest tool ever devised for independent musicians. You have instant worldwide distribution, and the most ubiquitous promotional system ever invented. Blaming the internet for crappy record sales is like blaming a hammer for bending nails. It’s not the tool’s fault.